Startling forecast: Apple’s next iPhone cycle could push shipments to record highs in 2025, propelled by the iPhone 17 lineup and a notable revival in China. IDC projects Apple will ship 247.4 million iPhones this year, an increase of just over 6% from 2024. That figure would surpass the 236 million units sold in 2021, when the iPhone 13 debuted.
IDC credits the surge to the “phenomenal” performance of the iPhone 17 series, with China showing especially strong demand that has accelerated Apple’s overall results, according to Nabila Popal, IDC’s senior research director.
It’s important to note that shipments measure devices sent by Apple to distribution channels, including retailers and e-commerce partners. They are not identical to actual sales, but they provide a gauge of anticipated demand.
At the iPhone 17 launch in September, investors viewed the lineup as a pivotal move for Apple, amid intensifying competition in China and questions about its AI strategy as rival Android devices gain traction.
IDC also forecasts a 17% year-over-year rise in Apple’s shipments within China during Q4, and lifts China’s annual market growth projection to 3% for 2025, up from an earlier forecast of a 1% decline.
In China, local brands such as Huawei have been reclaiming market share from Apple, contributing to a more challenging landscape for the iPhone maker.
This IDC outlook follows Counterpoint Research’s recent projection that Apple could outsell Samsung in 2025 for the first time in 14 years. Bloomberg previously reported that Apple might delay the base model of the iPhone 18 beyond 2024’s usual fall release window, potentially into 2027, which could imply a 4.2% drop in shipments next year according to IDC.
Would these anticipated shifts change how Apple sequences launches or prioritizes markets next year? Share your thoughts on whether the iPhone 17’s momentum can sustain itself in a cooling global smartphone market.
